When defense ministers meet face to face in Moscow, you know the subject is critical. General Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, could have easily called his Syrian counterpart, Lt. General Fahd Jaasim Al-Furayj, and talked over the telephone or even on secure lines. But, this subject demanded the highest level of secrecy in a world in which all conversations are vulnerable to eavesdropping. SyrPer has learned from one its sources that this meeting was planned to coincide with the Geneva-III conference which, as we believe, will result in no immediate end to the conflict. In fact, that position is bolstered by Stefan DiMistura’s own statement that the talks will not conclude for 6 months. Russia is not willing to simply wait for the exiled Syrian opposition to gather its senses and bring a unified position to the table. There are other developments which have to be addressed.
My source wrote that the Russian government is deeply concerned about Turk movements north of Jaraablus and Al-Manbij where the Syrian Kurdish forces are planning a final assault to seize those towns from ISIS. That is the first area of concern. The second, according to Wael, is the timing for the SAA and RuAF assault on Jisr Al-Shughoor. General Shoigu is pushing the Syrian High Command to finish off Kinsibba as soon as possible despite weather delays and the grotesque geography of the area. The third area of concern is a rapid deployment of new weapons systems the Syrians have not seen before and which, the Russians believe, will bring the battle more quickly to an end. The SAA, however, has to be trained to use the new ground equipment and the 2 generals discussed the logistics of absorption and training.
Most importantly, the Russian military is preparing to counter Turk movements in northern Syria which they view as essentially designed to appease the Saudi monkeys as far as 2 conditions are concerned: 1. ISIS must not be defeated by the Kurds and 2. Turkey must establish a salient inside Syria in which terrorists like Ahraar Al-Shaam, Jaysh Al-Fath and Alqaeda/Nusra can operate freely with a claim to Syrian territory. This last condition is extremely dangerous because it will require Turkey to use its air force over Syrian territory which will trigger the use of Russia’s vaunted S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, not to mention Syria’s own formidable array of Russian-made missiles. We are looking at the start of a bigger war and the Russians wanted to make their position clear to the Syrian Army’s high command. I am told that a separate coordination group would be established to deal with the new stressors in the north.
That Turkey is participating in this crack-pot scheme hatched by the inept, simian Saudis is testimony to the insanity of Erdoghan. With his country floundering economically after the imposition of Russian sanctions and the Kurds champing at the bit to establish their own de facto state, one would think Erdoghan might temporize, or even, balk at the idea of involving his country in an existential battle with the one nation Turkey has never defeated in battle despite 18 bites at the apple. This insanity will play out for all to see. It is this kind of mental derangement which brings about military coups d’etat. We are all awaiting General Necdet Ozel’s next move.
Wael says that the Saudis have vowed to compensate Turkey for any economic losses. But, the Saudis are nearly broke. They have terminated plans for a new health policy in the country because of a diminution in funding. As I wrote before, the Saudi Ministry of the Interior has alerted 12,000 Saudi students that they would not be receiving financial assistance for studying abroad for the near future due to a budget deficit. The war in Yemen is starting to cost this kingdom of apes billions of dollars for equipment and mercenaries – forgetting the cost of supporting tens of thousands of terrorists in Syria. The Saudis must have seen Erdoghan coming.
In the dark hallways of this stage are the Iranians who have yet to flex their muscles. This will be quite a scene.
NEWS AND COMMENT:
There’s a new book out about the Dirty War on Syria:
Penny doesn’t think her readers are paying enough attention to the Kurdish land-grabs:
NOTE TO READERS: I will be out of town until Sunday morning. I will post on Sunday and give the latest news about dead rodents.