SyrPer believes strongly that fear of UN condemnation and fallout from an unlawful encroachment into Syrian airspace finally brought the United States to its senses and heralded a marriage of convenience tying Russia, the USA and Syria together in a deliberately ambiguous relationship fraught with speculation.
SANA, like the BBC, is a state-owned and sponsored broadcasting news service. SANA speaks for the Syrian government whenever the latter wants to make something known. Through SANA, the Syrian Foreign Ministry made it clear that any trespass in sovereign Syrian territory had to be coordinated with the government. The U.S. responded that it did not need Syrian acquiescence to attack terrorists on Syrian soil who were threatening the U.S. and its regional allies. The Russians and Iranians said “no way”, you have to seek either U.N.S.C. resolution authorizing it or the agreement of the government in Damascus, but, they didn’t preface the caveats with any threats. In Iraq, the government of Haydar Al-‘Abbaadi made it clear that no foreign boots would be allowed on the ground, effectively barring the U.S. from using Iraq as a stage for ground assaults in Syria.
I am reading SANA and looking at RTV today. No hint of irritation with American actions over Syrian soil (and probably on it) could be detected. To the contrary, it seems as though the Syrian news services have been instructed to sound up-beat by chronicling the American air strikes with a matter-of-fact style indicating acceptance, or even, encouragement. I also note that Syrian Air Defense units are not firing on American aircraft. I think I know why this is happening.
I spoke to Wael yesterday by telephone from a friend’s house after having a radio interview with Mike Cohen from Lansing. I used a pre-paid card as a courtesy. The only meaningful indication from Wael was “all was fine”. There was no sense of impending calamity or anxiety in the very cautious way he normally speaks on the telephone. So, I had to conclude that Damascus is not vexed by the American airstrikes.
Take note that no action is being planned by Syria at the U.N. Syria’s very capable, but excessively urbane, Dr. Bashar Al-Ja’afari, has not broached the subject in any hostile manner. He was the first to announce that American super-Virago and Permanent Representative, Samantha Power, gave him a “heads-up” many hours before the first strikes began. Dr. Al-Ja’afari certainly communicated that to his superior, Waleed Al-Mu’allim, in Damascus. And, then, Mr. Al-Mu’allim received a memo from the U.S. via the Iraqi Foreign Ministry advising of the air strikes. This runs counter to the American insistence that there was no need to coordinate with Damascus; or that the government in Damascus was illegitimate!
Besides such notorious objects of ridicule like Barbara Walters, Dr. Al-Ja’afari counts Ziad as another acquaintance. Dr. Al-Ja’afari has sustained the heavy burden of representing Syria at the U.N. with Jobian patience.
So far, it appears the United States is targeting ISIS and Nusra only. No reports have come in of misfired rockets from Raptors which, inconveniently, impeded the SAA in its daily duty to exterminate the Arabian-and-American-supported rats. We note that Jordan claims to have attacked a group of ISIS terrorists on the Iraqi/Syrian border. The U.S. is venturing far into Syria all the way to the borders of Turkey and Idlib Province. All this without even a mew from Damascus.
Russia and Iran are insisting on following the rules. Russia is demanding a U.N. resolution authorizing force to destroy ISIS, but, the U.S. is going on anyways with its project. At SyrPer, we believe the U.S. has gotten itself into a legal/tactical dilemma which may end up embarrassing Washington. If the U.S. takes the matter to the U.N.S.C., the fact that Syria is a sitting member of the organization means that the U.S. will have to sign on to a legal document approved by the same government Obama views as “illegitimate”. The very mention of the Syrian government in such a document forces the U.S., Britain and France to essentially eat crow….to repudiate previous statements about the legitimacy of the Syrian government. The ramifications are deadly for the FSA and the mostly irrelevant NACOSROF. In other words, how can the U.S. train and arm the “moderate opposition” to oust a sitting president of a member state if, at bottom, that president is a legitimate leader of a nation? The U.S. is in a quandary.
Russia knows all this very well and insists on U.N. procedure. Russia’s strategy is obvious: if Moscow can force Obama’s regime to abide by U.N. rules, then, the U.S. will have to reassess its former position as to Dr. Assad. The U.S. will not be so free to irresponsibly blurt out nonsensical (and illegal) declarations that “Assad has no place in Syria’s future” or “Assad must step down”, and such other forms of balderdash. What I’m saying here is that as long as the U.S. will not address the ISIS issue at the U.N. all statements regarding acceptance of Dr. Assad’s presidency remain fragile and subject to ostracism. This is cause for worry.
Iran also shares Russia’s insistence on a U.N. role, if for anything, the need to keep the region from exploding. The significance of a resolution approved by the S.C. goes to constraining the U.S. to a defined role in Syria – a role which cannot be changed at will. This means that Iran can draw down its reserves and commit to working with the U.S. in Iraq, for example, without fear that their contribution will be exploited by Washington to invest more assets in the fight against Dr. Assad. Iran sees no benefit in triggering the Syrian/Iranian Mutual Defense Pact and prefers to contain America’s role with the imposition of legalistic barriers.
SyrPer does not believe that the war against ISIS will take years. That smells of British. It also fits the SyrPer hypothesis, which was published some weeks ago, that the U.S.’s desire to correct the disastrous Neo-Con policies in Iraq is playing out over the bodies of Syrian civilians. If the U.S. is merely trying to get back from Iraq what it views as its rightful moiety in a country it devastated from top to bottom but whose American-inspired carnage cost America over a trillion dollars with a sundry list of unrealized pipedreams of a thousand airbases, then, it appears we will see no end to the Zionist plan for Iraq – that is – unless the Iraqis figure it out themselves.
Russia is ready, as is Iran. If the U.S. tightens the leash around the throats of its rabid dogs in the Congress and the draft-dodging Neo-Con traitors, or the inaptly-named think tanks, which, if the truth be told, operate more like septic tanks, and should be called “stink tanks”, we won’t have to worry – Obama will have his legacy of no “boots on the ground” and the American citizenry can enjoy counting down the minutes to the next Super Bowl game. Dr. Assad and the Syrian people will emerge victorious while the Syrian felons in the opposition will sublimate into the gaseous void of oblivion. If not, we believe at SyrPer that Russia is prepared to take steps to bring the U.S. before the international body while moving its rooks to Syria for the inevitable checkmate. ZAF