WHERE IS THE FSA GOING? CAN IT GO ANYWHERE? HOW WILL DR. ASSAD DEAL WITH THE CONCEPT OF A “TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT”, IF IT EVER COMES TO PASS?
You know exactly who won this tug-of-war contest. Unless you think somebody who is married to the Heinz 57 Variety Queen can beat a Siberian grizzly bear, Mr. Lavrov’s smile seems much more indicative of victory.
The situation on the battlefield today has never been better for the Syrian army, the militias, security forces, police and the NDF. Over the last 2 months, with a reinvigorated military aided at every step by “ground-holding” militia, the Syrian army has decimated the FSA and its Al-Qaeda allies at the following crucial sites: Daarayyaa, Al-‘Utayba, Al-Qusayr, Rubay’ah, Kinsibba, Al-Baydhaa, Ra’s Al-Nabi’ and now, at Khirbat Ghazaala near Der’ah. The purification of the East Ghouta means that Damascus now controls the international airport whose operation is actually more symbolic than it is practical. At Latakia, we have documented the unsustainable losses to the Jabhat Al-Nusra organization. At Homs, the avenues into Syrian from Lebanon have been shut down. Contrary to what professional propagandists have been saying, even Al-Qusayr is now fully in the hands of the SAA with the exception of one neighborhood over which there are negotiations for a peaceful withdrawal of rat units.
Reinventing, restructuring and revamping the Syrian army took time. It had to be transformed from a military institution focused on war with the Zionist Entity to one committed to an anti-insurgency campaign. We must also admit, that another critical issue was reinforcement of the military with “loyal” militia and National Defense Forces. Today, we can state with some measure of confidence, that the SAA can vie with any other for a top place among military institutions expert in fighting rebel insurgencies.
Russia and Iran have remained loyal to the Syrian government. The Russians have put on a face which might be valid (id est: “we don’t care about who runs the country”) or a strategy that aims to gain credibility with the opposition while giving Dr. Assad every form of support he needs to continue the successful effort to extirpate the foreign-backed terrorists who have done more than even the so-called FSA to destroy the infrastructure of Syria.
The Syrian army is well-armed and by all accounts, including those sources in direct contact with SyrPer, enjoys a very high level of morale despite the seemingly intractable nature of the conflict. There are several reasons for this:
1. Many soldiers view the war as one of destiny. This is particularly true of secular Sunni Muslims with their feet firmly in the Ba’ath Party. This is also true of the minority groups who see the alternative in the darkest way imaginable.
2. The Syrian High Command, led by Generals Al-Furayj and Ayyoub, surprised many in the military by their demonstration of phlegmatic professionalism and unquestioned loyalty to the military effort.
3. Iran and Russia have been exceedingly generous is providing our army with the materiel it needs to continue the war in an “aggressive” way.
4. Qatar and Saudi Arabia inadvertently wound up being the biggest suppliers of weapons for our militia and National Defense Forces. While our comments in several posts might be thought of as comic relief, we were not joking at all when we wrote that SAA seizure of weapons caches purchased by the feckless regimes of Arabia and Qatar for use against Syrian civilians were transferred to the NDF for use against the same terrorists aided and abetted by the “royal sludge” in the Peninsula.
5. The United States and its NATO allies have done more to raise the morale of the Syrian army and people than anyone else. Syrian citizens are not keen on foreign intervention or conspiracy to destroy their society. The more the U.S. fulminated; the more the U.K. and France demanded our president’s departure; the more Turkey’s Erdoghan vituperated with his offensive Islamist style, the more the Syrian people bit the bullet, rallied round the flag and dug in for the long winter.
6. There is a realization that Syrian is not alone. Despite Western media using “trigger words” like “isolated”, “even more isolated”, “embattled”, “besieged”, “illegitimate” inter alia, Syrian military commanders looked elsewhere to determine where in fact Syria derived its support. They found it not only in Russia, Iran, Algeria, Iraq and Hizbollah, but also in a China seething with bitterness over the Libyan affair and in the BRICS countries. Add to that the vibrant support Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia and Ecuador have given and you have quite an impressive spectrum of nations standing athwart a wounded and desperate neo-imperialist alliance terrified of another foreign involvement no matter how close geographically.
7. All Syrians now know the FSA and the other foreign-created organizations like NACOSROF and the SNC never had and never will have any future. More frightening too was the chance that the Takfiri element of the “opposition” might win the day and subject the normally moderate Syrian people to unspeakable abominations and retrograde thinking.
But speculation by Western media, always ready to inform its opinions with negative interpretations of events, that Russia was going to jump ship in exchange for some emolument turned out to be completely and utterly and embarrassingly false. Russia, as we have written before, is invested in Syria for a number of reasons which give substance to its entire global policy. Here’s how the Russians now see the situation in Syria:
1. The Kremlin and Beijing have shown that you cannot fool everyone on the U.N.S.C. again. There will be no more Libyan scenarios in which a proposed humanitarian resolution to protect civilians acts as a fig leaf for robust military intervention designed to “overthrow” a sitting government.
2. Russia is working methodically to re-establish a counter-polar-alliance to stanch the somewhat lethargic expansion of American and EU influence in developing countries.
3. Russian support and Russian weapons have defeated the NATO-armed, Saudi-Qatari-armed, Turkish abetted-and-armed terrorists, notwithstanding the vast array of support, whether in weapons or unprecedented media manipulation, that were part and parcel of a deliberate effort to unseat a legitimate, sitting government.
4. There really is no opposition to sit and negotiate with Dr. Assad. The Russians are banking on intransigence on the part of the foreign-backed, expatriate gangs which predominate in the SNC and in the NACOSROF. People like Ghassan Shitto, who is the preposterous Qatari-appointed Prime Minister of a government one step in the Twilight Zone with another in Wonderland, have already made it clear there would be no negotiations without the departure of President Assad.
This is the Kurd-Texan-Syrian Prime Minister of Poop shaking hands with the Turk-Dwarf Foreign Minister, Davutoglu, serving one of the most corrupt governments on the planet. Good luck.
5. Putin does not fret over Dr. Assad’s departure. The Russians are convinced, and rightly so, that Dr. Assad would win any election held in Syria for the presidency. They are backing a winning horse. The Americans, on the other hand, are backing Ghassan Shitto who has not been to Syria since he escaped, at the age of 17, to avoid military service. Who picks these guys?
6. Russia is now of the opinion that the Americans have come to grips with the fact that Dr. Assad has no intention of letting go. They are betting that fears of a broader regional conflagration is now tamping down the bellicosity among the saner players in Washington. That Iraq could fall apart and then, into the arms of Iran is only one consideration. There is the problem of Jordan exploding. Another is a war between the Zionist Entity and its neighbors which will result in the deaths of over 50,000 of its Jewish settler citizens.
7. The natural gas reservoirs off the coasts of Cyprus, Lebanon and Syria are now safer than ever. Cyprus is strictly in the Russian camp now even if it belongs to the EU – Russian financial largess having bought this islands fealty. Lebanon is heavily influenced by Hizbollah which sees Moscow as an ally. Syria’s army is also in great condition and capable of assisting, if necessary, in keeping the Turk carpetbaggers out of this very profitable area – an area that could affect Gazprom’s monopolies.
8. World opinion is swinging away from knee-jerk support for the so-called “democracy-loving rebels”. More and more, the insurgency is seen as a sectarian campaign which aims to degrade or even exterminate minority groups who make up Syria’s mosaic society. Russia must be buoyed up, to some extent, by Germany’s recent stubborn refusal to arm the “opposition”.
9. Russia’s carefully navigated strategy of projecting its power through its naval force is bearing fruit. With Syria, Russia gives notice to its own vicious Islamist terrorists that they cannot win. Russia speaks to the world now as a loyal ally who does not shirk responsibility or shrink from obligation. Russia flexes its muscles with visible demonstrations of power.
In the meantime, President Assad must consider the very likely probability that Moscow will accede to the American demand that there be elections in Syria to determine who will be president. While we all know Dr. Assad is the runaway favorite, still there would have to be discussion of a “transitional government” as a way of assuaging the hurt feelings which will doubtlessly infuse American treatment of the Syrian file. We, at SyrPer, believe that a transitional government is pure folly. In fact, many Syrians view the very act of creating a transitional government as something akin to a Trojan Horse. Given attitudes today, we think Dr. Assad’s government is here to stay and for a longer time than 2014. ZAF
NEWS AND PROPAGANDA FOR THE COMEDY FILE:
Here’s a laugh-riot for you propaganda hounds and sophistry freaks of nature. This David Phillips is one doofus:
Here is an okay article written by propagandists about the current situation about which they have made some valid conclusions out of false premises:
Good stuff about American lying and hypocrisy when it comes to WMDs and their puppets’ use of it in Syria:
This is a really good article which will buttress my thoughts in the commentary today. It appears Saleem Idrees has thrown in the towel. Aslan reported last month that there is talk of replacing him:
Now, also, read this in light of my commentary: