FIRST POST – AUGUST 9, 2012 – TEHERAN CALLS FOR CONFERENCE TO DEFINE THE LIMITS OF TURKISH AND WESTERN TREACHERY
The Iranian government wants to host a conference of “allied” countries in Teheran to discuss the improving situation in Syria. Iran is aware of the Western nations’ tactic of “creeping incrementalism”, i.e. upping pressure every time the opposition suffers a set-back such as the disastrous one in Aleppo. Iran wants to secure the progress made so far in Syria without any more interference from Europe or the West. Not surprisingly, this comes at a time when some countries, like France, of course, are calling for a “no-fly zone” in Northern Syria. Let’s forget about how that would be quite impossible militarily. Iran simply wants to consolidate Syria’s military successes without having to deal with more treachery from Turkey and the rest of the “Axis of Hypocrisy”.
The Iranians have not yet divulged the names of the countries who will attend although we know that India and Pakistan are sending a delegation. The Russians have acknowledged the invitation but promise no higher an official than their ambassador to Iran. This should only be viewed as Russian wariness over what Iran is really planning to do. The Russians do not want to be snookered into a confrontation with the West or be seen as Teheran’s confederate in any provocative military maneuver. We have discussed Russia’s and Iran’s interests in the region and the differences between the two capitals’ views is stark.
SyrPer believes that Iran is going to take a confrontational posture with Turkey. We are looking now at the first pro-active response from the Syrian and Iranian side of this conflict. In the past, the West took action with Syria and Iran essentially responding. Their strategy seemed to be molded by a “day-to-day-let’s see” type of assessment. We think that’s about to change once Aleppo is secured.
Erdoghan does not want war. He’s going to tell Hillary Clinton that when she meets him. He’s going to tell her that the Turkish people do not want any foreign adventures. She is going to tell him that that may be just fine except that the U.S. wants to ratchet up the pressure constantly. It’s here that Iran wants to interject itself. If Turkey is going to keep up with this dirty game of arming, training and enabling the terrorists, then, it becomes very clear that the way to Damascus and Dr. Assad is by “wearing down” the government. This is unacceptable to Iran and might be the way into a broad theatre-type conflict. SyrPer believes Erdoghan will be overthrown by the army if such a conflict explodes in the region. Iran knows that.
Expect much more strident denunciations from Teheran in the future. Turkey’s failure to assist in the release of 18 Iranian hostages taken two months ago by terrorists near Aleppo and the 50-plus pilgrims who were taken hostage south of Damascus last week has made Ankara a genuine nemesis. These acts of terrorism are widely broadcast in Iran and Lebanon, and the Iranian administration, Ahmadi-Nejad and the Supreme Leader, are on the hook. They must do something.
Look also for India’s participation. This is an immensely important actor because of its economic power.
The U.S. will be looking carefully at how Delhi weighs in on Dr. Assad’s response to what the world is beginning finally to see as American-orchestrated terrorism. Not a good thing with the Indians.
COLONEL AL-OQAIDI IS IN SAIF-AL-DAWLA WITH NO WAY OUT.
SYRPER told its readers that the criminals would have to leave Salahuddine Quarter for Saif-Al-Dawla.
The strategy here has exposed the purely moronic nature of the command structure of the FSA and its affiliates. We certainly hope that this was not a U.S. plan to follow up on the great terrorist triumph in Damascus when four of our generals were murdered. Oh, dear. This is the end for the FSA thanks to the U.S. and its intellectual dwarfs in Southern Turkey.
Col. Abdul-Jabbar Al-Oqaidi has been recorded speaking to some officer in Hatay about finding a way out of his mess. My sources say that he knows the noose is tightening and does not want to be captured. It would be very disheartening for the poor criminals to have their mastermind fall into the hands of Syria’s beloved Air Force Intelligence Service. The FSA cannot bring any new reinforcements in because the city is now surrounded completely. Moreover, the population of Aleppo, according to our relatives in Latakia, is becoming even more anti-FSA.
We predict that in 48 hours, the Syrian state tv. will announce the total surrender of all FSA forces in Aleppo. Al-Oqaidi will be killed.