Monday, December 19, 2011 – Did we not tell you the truth last week about the Arab League?  Of course we did.  As it turns out, the diplomatic debacle for Qatar was bigger than we thought.  You see, it was obvious before the purported Cairo meeting that Arab countries, like Algeria, were going to jump ship.  Other countries, like Egypt, with their hypersensitive Military Council, did not want a similar campaign waged against their country.  Saudi Arabia, ever hostile to the Al-Thani tribe of Qatar, began to buckle also.  When it was decided to meet on Saturday in Doha, Qatar, the only thing that could be done was to reduce the number of foreign ministers to only five and vote on referring the matter to the U.N. Security Council.  Massive defeat for Qatar.

But there is more.  The Arab League gave Syria only until this Wednesday to sign the protocol allowing 500 monitors to enter the country.  But, that made no difference because the Iraqi delegation, led by Faleh Fayyad,  that met with its Syrian counterparts and F.M. Walid Mouallem last week had already achieved the goal of persuading Syria to sign the protocol.  Faisal Miqdad, the Czech-educated Deputy Foreign Minister in Damascus, is heading to Cairo for signing. 

                     Walid Mouallem, Syria’s Foreign Minister, is in on the Russian stratagem 

Syria is now on its way to stifling the opposition by sheer kindness.  The Russian plan, you see, is to have observers from the Arab League enter Syria and watch the U.S.-trained terrorists attack Syrian infrastructure and civilian populations.  If, as we believe, most of the observers will be from friendlier Arab countries, like Algeria and Sudan, the truth will be revealed in their reports.

In the meantime Russia is circulating its own resolution at the U.N.  It condemns violence from both sides of the Syrian conflict and points to “disproportionate use of force” by the government.  Now, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, knows fully well what “disproportionate” is from his experience with the Chechen uprising.  But the trick here, is to get the U.S. to veto the resolution which is couched in language that most nations will find balanced and unobjectionable.  In a sense, the Russian gambit here is to expose the American-led media war against Syria by forcing the Americans to show their hand.  The British will pick up on this quickly but may find no rational exit without a veto.  When Russia reasonably insists that the western-supported opposition Transition Council participate in resolving the conflict but is refused (and hence the military option, also),  the jig will be up.  Brazil, Venezuela, China, South Africa and a whole raft of developing countries will know the nature of western policy and shall side with Syria on any vote.

Sergei Lavrov has studied this situation well and is the chess master behind the new Russian gambit to expose the West’s “immoral” position on peace in Syria

The BBC has published some hilariously misleading and poorly thought out analyses of the situation in Syria but none so lacking in sense as the one titled:  “Russia Calibrates its Syria Policy”.  Wishful thinking aside, its a typical example of “dream-reasoning”; when an observer desires something very badly without much hope of attaining it then falls asleep and sees the issue in typical disjointed format.  When he wakes up, the disjoint elbows its way into how he perceives his problem.  When he writes about it, the irrational perceptions overpower the unfolding of the subject leading to absurd conclusions and facilely concocted justifications. 

Look people, Russia has one country in the Mediterranean upon which it can rely for docking rights;
that’s Syria whose deep water ports at Latakia and Tartous are capable of hosting the entire Russian fleet.  Moreover, until recently, Russia had a stranglehold on European society and industry due to its virtual monopoly on natural gas supplies to the West.  Gazprom is the Russian company most responsible for this fortunate set of circumstances.

The Russian bear can smell American diplomatic blood in the air and is moving in for the kill

But what if Turkey could assert control over the newly-discovered natural gas reservoirs off the coast of Lebanon, Cyprus and Palestine?  What if Turkey could guarantee sufficient supply of natural gas by playing the role of “enforcer”?   Turkey has already done this by threatening naval military action to prevent Cyprus and Lebanon from assessing their respective interests in the natural gas.  Prime Minister Erdoghan is betting that he can shimmy his way into European Union membership by making himself indispensable to Germany and France.  This would be his last chance for acceptance into the union.

In order to finalize its hegemony over the Levantine littoral, Turkey needs to join the West in crushing the last stubborn outcrop of Arab nationalism once and for all, and bring the region into compliance with American-led proxy-states.  If Syria goes, Lebanon will be manipulated back into a Maronite-Sunni collaboration that Turkey believes would eventually extirpate Iranian influence and thus, Shi’i dominance of Beirut’s politics.  A Sunni state in both Lebanon and Syria would be beneficial to Sunni Turkey.  All of this sounds so mellifluous, if not for the presence now of the Russian fleet off the coast of Syria!

                                          Battle cruisers like these are docking in Syria.

So what if the U.S. vetoes the Russian resolution and continues to support the terrorists in Syria?
The answer is quite simple.  Russia will now have the international support for an openly hostile campaign against the Syrian opposition which may mean intensified pressure on it through vigorous resupply of weapons systems more lethal and effective in fighting them across Turkey’s, Jordan’s and Lebanon’s borders.  I also believe that Russia could then have an excuse to patrol Lebanese waters to interdict shipping that carries weapons to insurgents.  Turkish efforts to control Lebanon’s own natural resources may result in President Suleiman asking Russia for protection.  One thing is certain, Russia cannot allow a NATO member, like Turkey, to have such immense power.