FIRST POST – MARCH 8, 2013 – SYRPER ANALYZES THE SITUATION AT PRESENT; NEWS AND PROPAGANDA

WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY TO MAKE OBAMA WANT TO TALK TO THE RUSSIANS?

WHERE IS THE FSA GOING?  CAN IT GO ANYWHERE?  HOW WILL DR. ASSAD DEAL WITH THE CONCEPT OF A “TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT”, IF IT EVER COMES TO PASS?

You know exactly who won this tug-of-war contest.  Unless you think somebody who is married to the Heinz 57 Variety Queen can beat a Siberian grizzly bear,  Mr. Lavrov’s smile seems much more indicative of victory.

The situation on the battlefield today has never been better for the Syrian army, the militias, security forces, police and the NDF.  Over the last 2 months, with a reinvigorated military aided at every step by “ground-holding” militia, the Syrian army has decimated the FSA and its Al-Qaeda allies at the following crucial sites: Daarayyaa, Al-‘Utayba, Al-Qusayr, Rubay’ah, Kinsibba, Al-Baydhaa, Ra’s Al-Nabi’ and now, at Khirbat Ghazaala near Der’ah.  The purification of the East Ghouta means that Damascus now controls the international airport whose operation is actually more symbolic than it is practical.  At Latakia, we have documented the unsustainable losses to the Jabhat Al-Nusra organization.  At Homs, the avenues into Syrian from Lebanon have been shut down.  Contrary to what professional propagandists have been saying, even Al-Qusayr is now fully in the hands of the SAA with the exception of one neighborhood over which there are negotiations for a peaceful withdrawal of rat units.

Reinventing, restructuring and revamping the Syrian army took time.  It had to be transformed from a military institution focused on war with the Zionist Entity to one committed to an anti-insurgency campaign. We must also admit, that another critical issue was reinforcement of the military with “loyal” militia and National Defense Forces.  Today, we can state with some measure of confidence, that the SAA can vie with any other for a top place among military institutions expert in fighting rebel insurgencies.

Russia and Iran have remained loyal to the Syrian government.  The Russians have put on a face which might be valid (id est: “we don’t care about who runs the country”) or a strategy that aims to gain credibility with the opposition while giving Dr. Assad every form of support he needs to continue the successful effort to extirpate the foreign-backed terrorists who have done more than even the so-called FSA to destroy the infrastructure of Syria.

The Syrian army is well-armed and by all accounts, including those sources in direct contact with SyrPer, enjoys a very high level of morale despite the seemingly intractable nature of the conflict.  There are several reasons for this:

1.  Many soldiers view the war as one of destiny.  This is particularly true of secular Sunni Muslims with their feet firmly in the Ba’ath Party.  This is also true of the minority groups who see the alternative in the darkest way imaginable.

2.  The Syrian High Command, led by Generals Al-Furayj and Ayyoub, surprised many in the military by their demonstration of phlegmatic professionalism and unquestioned loyalty to the military effort.

3.  Iran and Russia have been exceedingly generous is providing our army with the materiel it needs to continue the war in an “aggressive” way.

4.  Qatar and Saudi Arabia inadvertently wound  up being the biggest suppliers of weapons for our militia and National Defense Forces.  While our comments in several posts might be thought of as comic relief, we were not joking at all when we wrote that SAA seizure of weapons caches purchased by the feckless regimes of Arabia and Qatar for use against Syrian civilians were transferred to the NDF for use against the same terrorists aided and abetted by the “royal sludge” in the Peninsula.

5.  The United States and its NATO allies have done more to raise the morale of the Syrian army and people than anyone else.  Syrian citizens are not keen on foreign intervention or conspiracy to destroy their society. The more the U.S. fulminated; the more the U.K. and France demanded our president’s departure; the more Turkey’s Erdoghan vituperated with his offensive Islamist style, the more the Syrian people bit the bullet, rallied round the flag and dug in for the long winter.

6.   There is a realization that Syrian is not alone.  Despite Western media using “trigger words” like “isolated”, “even more isolated”, “embattled”, “besieged”, “illegitimate” inter alia, Syrian military commanders looked elsewhere to determine where in fact Syria derived its support.  They found it not only in Russia, Iran, Algeria, Iraq and Hizbollah, but also in a China seething with bitterness over the Libyan affair and in the BRICS countries.  Add to that the vibrant support Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia and Ecuador have given and you have quite an impressive spectrum of nations standing athwart a wounded and desperate neo-imperialist alliance terrified of another foreign involvement no matter how close geographically.

7.  All Syrians now know the FSA and the other foreign-created organizations like NACOSROF and the SNC  never had and never will have any future.  More frightening too was the chance that the Takfiri element of the “opposition” might win the day and subject the normally moderate Syrian people to unspeakable abominations and retrograde thinking.

             

But speculation by Western media, always ready to inform its opinions with negative interpretations of events, that Russia was going to jump ship in exchange for some emolument turned out to be completely and utterly and embarrassingly false.  Russia, as we have written before, is invested in Syria for a number of reasons which give substance to its entire global policy.  Here’s how the Russians now see the situation in Syria:

1.  The Kremlin and Beijing have shown that you cannot fool everyone on the U.N.S.C. again.  There will be no more Libyan scenarios in which a proposed humanitarian resolution to protect civilians acts as a fig leaf for robust military intervention designed to “overthrow” a sitting government.

2.  Russia is working methodically to re-establish a counter-polar-alliance to stanch the somewhat lethargic expansion of American and EU influence in developing countries.

3.  Russian support and Russian weapons have defeated the NATO-armed, Saudi-Qatari-armed, Turkish abetted-and-armed terrorists,  notwithstanding the vast array of support, whether in weapons or unprecedented media manipulation, that were part and parcel of a deliberate effort to unseat a legitimate, sitting government.

4.  There really is no opposition to sit and negotiate with Dr. Assad.  The Russians are banking on intransigence on the part of the foreign-backed, expatriate gangs which predominate in the SNC and in the NACOSROF.  People like Ghassan Shitto, who is the preposterous Qatari-appointed Prime Minister of a government one step in the Twilight Zone with another in Wonderland, have already made it clear there would be no negotiations without the departure of President Assad.              
 

This is the Kurd-Texan-Syrian Prime Minister of Poop shaking hands with the Turk-Dwarf Foreign Minister, Davutoglu, serving one of the most corrupt governments on the planet.  Good luck.

5.  Putin does not fret over Dr. Assad’s departure.  The Russians are convinced, and rightly so, that Dr. Assad would win any election held in Syria for the presidency.  They are backing a winning horse. The Americans, on the other hand, are backing Ghassan Shitto who has not been to Syria since he escaped, at the age of 17,  to avoid military service.  Who picks these guys?

6.  Russia is now of the opinion that the Americans have come to grips with the fact that Dr. Assad has no intention of letting go.  They are betting that fears of a broader regional conflagration is now tamping down the bellicosity among the saner players in Washington.  That Iraq could fall apart and then, into the arms of Iran is only one consideration.  There is the problem of Jordan exploding.  Another is a war between the Zionist Entity and its neighbors which will result in the deaths of over 50,000 of its Jewish settler citizens.

7.   The natural gas reservoirs off the coasts of Cyprus, Lebanon and Syria are now safer than ever.  Cyprus is strictly in the Russian camp now even if it belongs to the EU – Russian financial largess having bought this islands fealty.  Lebanon is heavily influenced by Hizbollah which sees Moscow as an ally.  Syria’s army is also in great condition and capable of assisting, if necessary, in keeping the Turk carpetbaggers out of this very profitable area – an area that could affect Gazprom’s monopolies.

8.  World opinion is swinging away from knee-jerk support for the so-called “democracy-loving rebels”.  More and more, the insurgency is seen as a sectarian campaign which aims to degrade or even exterminate minority groups who make up Syria’s mosaic society. Russia must be buoyed up, to some extent, by Germany’s recent stubborn refusal to arm the “opposition”.

9.  Russia’s carefully navigated strategy of projecting its power through its naval force is bearing fruit.  With Syria, Russia gives notice to its own vicious Islamist terrorists that they cannot win.  Russia speaks to the world now as a loyal ally who does not shirk responsibility or shrink from obligation.  Russia flexes its muscles with visible demonstrations of power.

In the meantime, President Assad must consider the very likely probability that Moscow will accede to the American demand that there be elections in Syria to determine who will be president.  While we all know Dr. Assad is the runaway favorite, still there would have to be discussion of a “transitional government” as a way of assuaging the hurt feelings which will doubtlessly infuse American treatment of the Syrian file.  We, at SyrPer, believe that a transitional government is pure folly.  In fact, many Syrians view the very act of creating a transitional government as something akin to a Trojan Horse.  Given attitudes today, we think Dr. Assad’s government is here to stay and for a longer time than 2014.  ZAF      

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NEWS AND PROPAGANDA FOR THE COMEDY FILE:

Here’s a laugh-riot for you propaganda hounds and sophistry freaks of nature.  This David Phillips is one doofus:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-l-phillips/safe-areas-in-syria_b_3223887.html

Here is an okay article written by propagandists about the current situation about which they have made some valid conclusions out of false premises:

http://news.yahoo.com/u-russia-push-rapid-talks-end-syria-carnage-003015077.html

Good stuff about American lying and hypocrisy when it comes to WMDs and their puppets’ use of it in Syria:

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2013/05/07/carla-del-pontes-faux-pas/

This is a really good article which will buttress my thoughts in the commentary today.  It appears Saleem Idrees has thrown in the towel.  Aslan reported last month that there is talk of replacing him:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/05/07/190602/syrian-rebel-leader-salim-idriss.html#.UYose0qyTkU

Now, also, read this in light of my commentary:

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/08/Syrian-opposition-insists-on-Assad-s-departure-before-any-deal.html

FIRST POST - MARCH 8, 2013 - SYRPER ANALYZES THE SITUATION AT PRESENT; NEWS AND PROPAGANDA by
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Ziad Fadel
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Putin is a charmer. I think he’s using diplospeak to tell Kerry he had better tread carefully. Ziad

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Putin kept that Kerry waiting for 3 hours before seeing him. I think that says all about Russian-US relations, rather frosty. Putin is very wise to suppport the Syrian people in their struggle with the salafi wahabist-rats. The SAA is the last line of defense. We owe them so much.

Ziad Fadel
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I agree. Ziad

Anonymous
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Generally good analysis, but I am rather perplexed about your assertion concerning the supposed dependence of the Syrian Army on Russian and Iranian weapon deliveries. In fact, here you are repeating a standard western propaganda talking point, namely that the Syrian government would collapse immediately without external help. While more advanced equipment (like, for example, more surveillance drones, of which the SAA only seems to have a small number) would be nice to have, the Syrian army already has all the weapons that it needs for winning this war and most of the consumables like ammunition and artillery shells and… Read more »
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I read the article again and nothing in there suggesting “Syrian government would collapse immediately without external help” as you suggested. In paragraph 3, ziad qualified that the assistance given by Russia and Iran allowed SAA to conduct the war in an “aggressive” way. That is, these help are given to for that extra edge, without which the SAA could also continue perfectly. So, that part is clearly explained. Then again, this is Syrian perspective and that is the reason many keep coming back to this blog. I for one will not categorise the Rebels as needing any form of… Read more »
Ziad Fadel
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I’m afraid I’ll stick to my guns (no pun intended) on this one. Syria produces much of its own light weapons and SCUD missiles, to be sure. But the more advanced anti-aircraft weapons, ground-to-sea weapons (Yakhont) and advanced radar systems have to be bought from Russia and Iran. I appreciate your confidence in the SAA, however. Ziad .

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Great stuff as always Ziad.

Ziad Fadel
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Thank you, my friend. Ziad

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“Zionist Entity”

Gosh, this article is confusing. One would think (what two or three would think, nobody tells me) that an “honest” Jew-hater like Ziad or Fadel would keep these facts right in front of our faces at all times.

mooser42001

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I have never considered Ziad to be a “jew-hater”. An “anti-Zionist”, true, but it is a severe moral mistake to confuse the two.

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Abhorring Zionism does not equate to being a “Jew-hater.” However, I am presuming you’re a Zionist because you just consolidated the terms. Ziad did not state he detests Jews; that is your own misconstrued opinion. Furthermore, what is wrong with referring to Israel as a “Zionist entity”? Are they not?

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Abhoring Zionism equates abhoring satan whose minions are overly represented among jews, but not limited to them. This is a war between the forces of Light and those of Darkness and Zionists lead the latter. Calling Israel a country would be incorrect as it has NO BORDERS! Thus it is NOT Israel and is correctly refered to as “the Zionist Entity.”

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Zionist Entity is a kind way of refering to Occuppied Palestine,I prefer the Zionist Abomination which is more accurate. Jesus the Christ would agree and warned us about the Synagogue of Satan over 2000 years ago, as have many of God’s prophets. In all of God’s Holy Books humanity is warned of jewish treachery and its alliance with the devil, so so-called “anti-semites” are in very good company. I agree with God and his prophets on their description of the majority of jews.

Ziad Fadel
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I don’t hate Jews. I hate Zionists – Christian or Jewish. Judaism is just another religion. I prefer Zionist Abomination too. After all, I coined it. Ziad

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Well-written commentary,Ziad. The conflict is almost over now. The Muslim Brotherhood must be banned from Syrian politics in the future as well as anyone who took up arms against the Syrian government. And. all Syrian Arab Army deserters must serve time. The tide of western imperialism in the Middle East has ebbed–now the blowback will begin for those leaders and governments who betrayed their Arab neighbors to support the West.

Ziad Fadel
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I agree. I don’t understand how Syria, which already prohibits the MB, allowed the damn Hamas people into Damascus. I know. I know. Iran wanted it that way. But the Iranians are making the mistake of not reading history. The MB is inevitably a 5th column acting in the interests of the Western intelligence services. And thanks for the compliment. I do appreiciate them. Ziad

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Good Commentary, Ziad. Now the SAA should turn it’s attention to Israel and Take the Golan, Haifa, and Telaviv!

Ziad Fadel
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This is my dream. Let’s charter the Greek frigates to take the Jews back to Poland and Russia, inter alia. Ziad

Varangian
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Varangian

It looks like Israel will not stop until the Syrian people are exterminated. Bashar Al-Assad, what are you waiting for? Russia warned Israel not to strike at Syria again. Now this third attack? You are being forced to respond. If you retaliate they will unleash all hell on you.

Israel will not stop until Syria is completely destroyed, its people genocided and Syria’s culture smashed.

Israel Supports Al Qaeda Operatives in Syria:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/israel-supports-al-qaeda-operatives-in-syria/5334381?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=israel-supports-al-qaeda-operatives-in-syria

Ziad Fadel
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No question about it. I do believe that Syria will defeat this cancer. Ziad

Mark D'Viglio
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I think the Russians are playing a more advanced form of strategy here. You have to read the fine print. The US has made a huge concession, and Moscow and Syria have not made any concessions. What is Russia and the US agreeing upon? Specifically it’s called the Geneva comminique, which has the specific language that an interim government must be agreed upon by Both parties….so this means, in affect, that any transitional government must be agreed upon by Bashar Al Assad! And it means that he is in compliance if he chooses to agree upon a transitional government with… Read more »
Ziad Fadel
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Exactly. I hope our readers comment on your comment. Intelligent. Ziad

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OK, but the question is whether ZATO actually wants a successful conference. My view is that one can expect ZATO to throw up confusing crap to see if Russia and Iran will make concessions. An example is to prevent more weapons getting to Hezbollah or not put good Russian heavy metal in the relevant theater. I actually see this as something the anti-ZATO side has to be very wary of. Time is on Syria’s side, as the US, Turkey, and Jordan are not very keen on having demoralized, wounded lunatics hanging around. It’s also possible that the US will want… Read more »
Souri Homsi
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“This morning, the government of Israel contacted President Assad of Syria. They did so as the leader of a coalition now openly at war against Syria and Iran, with plans to broaden the conflict. “

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/05/06/302121/usled-ziowahhabis-wage-war-on-syria/

Ziad Fadel
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What rubbish. Can anybody believe this? Keep sending me Wile E. Coyote tapes. Ziad

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The Syrian government better be careful about any ceasefires. The insurgents are basically protected, but it would be most inconvenient if they got to stay in certain areas as a bargaining chip. You have to assume that ZATO will want to create problems for pipelines and gas development.

Paul

Ziad Fadel
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I agree, Paul. The SAA should never agree to any ceasefires. And the rats are not “protected” as you know by the ugly statistics they have to live with. Ziad

Anonymous
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Oops … Freudian slip there. The insurgents are defeated, not “protected”.

Don’t be surprised if Iraq heats up shortly. It will be hard to build a pipeline through a war zone.

Paul

Ziad Fadel
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I got the message. Do not be surprised as the SAA is massing on Al-Raqqa. The pipeline will be fine. Ziad

Angus Og
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Angus Og

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-05/08/c_132368306.htm
“We believe that full implementation of the Geneva Communique pre-supposes the establishment of a transitional governing agency. We proceed from the assumption that the agency will exercise full executive power,” Lavrov said, adding “we are confident that will be the best and shortest way to settle the Syrian crisis.”

http://www.voanews.com/content/kerry-sees-transitional-syrian-government-without-assad/1657520.html
“Kerry said Thursday in Rome, where he was meeting with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh, that the goal is a political solution agreed to by the Syrian government and those opposed to Mr. Assad.
Kerry says that “clearly means” the Syrian president will not be part of the transitional government.”

Russia has sold out.

Anonymous
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A transitional governing agency is what the US had refused. VOA is the CIA, as you know.

Dream on. Russia will bargain, but they would have sold out a long, long time ago if that is what they had wanted to do. Also, why sell out? They’ve won.

Paul

Ziad Fadel
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I disagree completely. Russia is definitely insistent on Dr. Assad’s remaining in power. No sell-out. No way. I agree with Paul. Ziad

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